How much have average wages risen over 10 years?

Average ordinary-time hourly earnings climbed about 34 percent – from roughly $31 in 2015 to just under $42 in early-2025.

Have wages kept up with inflation?

Not fully. CPI rose about 27 percent in the same period, leaving real wages only slightly higher than a decade ago.

Will 2025 bring bigger pay rises?

Economists expect wage inflation to hover near 3-4 percent, below the peaks of 2022–23, as the labour market cools.

NZ Wage Growth: 10-Year Trend and Why Big Pay Rises Look Unlikely

Illustration of a magnifying glass over bar charts showing New Zealand wage growth — Nominal pay cheques got fatter – but real buying power barely nudged.

New Zealand wages have risen sharply on paper over the past decade. Yet once you strip out inflation, the average Kiwi’s purchasing power looks only marginally better than it did in 2015. Below we unpack the key numbers, compare them with price growth and explain why economists think double-digit pay bumps are off the table for 2025.

1. A Decade in Numbers

Average ordinary-time hourly earnings:
• 2015 Q4: $31.34
• 2025 Q1: $41.98
10-year nominal lift: +34 %
CPI inflation, 2015-25: +27 % (Stats NZ CPI indicator)

Bottom line: real wages are up roughly 6 % in ten years – about 0.6 % a year on average.

2. Why the Gap Between Pay and Prices Grew

COVID aftershocks: Supply-chain snarls and fiscal stimulus pushed CPI above 7 % in 2022, outpacing wage gains.
Productivity woes: Labour productivity grew less than 1 % a year in the 2010s, capping employers’ ability to fund higher pay.
Influx of workers: Net migration swung from negative in 2021 to +118 k in 2024, easing skill shortages and salary pressure.

3. Recent Signs Point to Cooling Wage Inflation

The latest Labour Cost Index shows annual wage inflation at 3.8 % (March 2025). That’s back to pre-Covid norms after double-digit spikes in 2022-23. Unemployment has inched up to 4.8 %, giving employers a bit more bargaining power.

4. Sectors Bucking the Trend

Health & Social Assistance posted the fastest yearly wage growth (+6.9 %) thanks to collective bargaining wins, while Retail and Hospitality barely cleared 2 % as consumer spending softened.

5. Outlook: What Could Move the Dial?

Minimum-wage increases: The adult minimum rose from $14.25 in 2014 to $23.15 in 2024 (+62 %). Further hikes lift the floor but compress margins higher up the pay scale.
Productivity upgrades: Automation, AI adoption and training are needed to support sustainably higher wages.
Bargaining reforms: Fair Pay Agreements (paused in 2024) could re-emerge and set sector-wide baselines.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q. Are real wages falling right now?
A. They were negative in 2022–23 but have stabilised as CPI fell to 2.5 % while wage growth sits near 3.8 %.
Q. Does migration always dampen pay?
A. Not necessarily; skilled migration can boost productivity and income, but sudden surges often ease wage pressure short-term.
Q. Which industries pay above the national average?
A. Mining, ICT, and Professional Services all post hourly earnings 15–35 % above the $42 national benchmark.

📌 About the Author

Kiwi Money Matters is written and maintained by a New Zealand-based writer with hands-on experience in finance and accounting since 2015.

All posts are personally researched, written to ensure clarity and trustworthiness for everyday Kiwis.

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