April Surge: NZ Property Sales Jump 9.5 % — Are We Near the Bottom?

Published 19 May 2025 • Category: Real Estate and Mortgage

Why This Matters Now

Just released REINZ April 2025 figures reveal the biggest annual lift in sales volumes since late 2022 — up 9.5 % year-on-year. Yet median prices slid 1.1 % to $781,000, underscoring a market that’s busier but still price-sensitive. Buyers and investors are suddenly asking: Is this the turning point?

Key Numbers at a Glance

• Sales volumes: 6,427 nationwide (+9.5 % YoY). Southland led gains (+28.7 %).
• Median price: $781k (-$9k vs March & April 2024).
• Listings: 8,518 (-11.6 % YoY) → tight supply is back.
• Inventory: 35,924 homes for sale (+6.2 % YoY).
• Average days to sell: 43.9 (improving from 45.3 in March).

What’s Driving the Uptick?

1. Cheaper borrowing: Major banks trimmed longer-term fixed rates again last week — Kiwibank’s three-year special dropped to 5.35 %. Lower test rates (now 7 %) also widen the pool of approved borrowers.

2. Rate-cut expectations: The Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Report flagged “subdued” demand but signalled scope for more OCR easing at its 28 May meeting. Markets now price another 25 bp cut by August.

3. FOMO creeping back: First-home buyers dominate auctions again, worried they might “miss the bottom”. Investor interest remains muted, but cashflow calculations look less daunting with sub-5.5 % funding costs.

Will Prices Follow Volumes Up?

Historically, a sustained lift in sales precedes price growth by ~6 months. But today’s macro backdrop is mixed:

1. Tailwinds: lower mortgage rates, population rebound from net migration, and tight new-build pipeline due to earlier consenting slump.
2. Headwinds: weak consumer sentiment, looming DTI caps (effective 1 July), and budget uncertainty ahead of the 22 May fiscal package.

My take: Expect a “flat-then-slow-rise” scenario — mid-single-digit gains over the next 12 months, led by affordable regions and entry-level stock.

Strategy Tips for Buyers & Owners

• First-home buyers: Use current competition lull. Negotiate extras (maintenance, settlement flexibility) rather than a big price discount.
• Investors: Stress-test deals at +200 bp above current rates; DTI limits may curb leverage — line up equity early.
• Existing borrowers: Consider a 50/50 split: one-year fix to ride possible rate cuts, plus three-year fix for certainty.

FAQ

• Q. Are house prices about to rebound sharply?
  A. Unlikely. Most economists see gradual recovery — think 2-4 % annual growth, not another boom.
• Q. Should I wait for the next OCR cut?
  A. Waiting may save a few bps on rates, but rising demand could offset that with higher purchase prices. Focus on property fit and long-term affordability.
• Q. Will DTI limits kill investor demand?
  A. They add friction, yet seasoned investors with strong equity can still buy. Expect less speculative flipping, more “buy-and-hold”.

Category: Real Estate and Mortgage

📌 About the Author

Kiwi Money Matters is written and maintained by a New Zealand-based writer with hands-on experience in finance and accounting since 2015.

All posts are personally researched, written to ensure clarity and trustworthiness for everyday Kiwis.